CMHC: Canada Needs Up to 469,000 Homes a Year to Restore Affordability, But Ownership Supply Is Weakening as Developers Pivot to Rentals

CMHC’s Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report, released on September 14, 2026, estimates that Canada must build between 417,000 and 469,000 homes annually over the next decade to restore affordability to pre-pandemic levels by 2036. Current national projections, however, sit at roughly 231,000 starts per year, leaving an annual supply gap of 187,000 to 238,000 units. The federal housing agency explicitly warns that construction activity is shifting away from ownership housing and toward rental development, a trend that is accelerating during the current housing downturn and leaving the for-sale segment exposed to a significant supply crunch when demand eventually strengthens again.